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The Wisdom of Crowds redux

By Daniel Strickland on May 16, 2006.

It was a great game last night …

Should Dallas win again, fans might be disappointed to see the series end. Expectations have been building since it became obvious in December this would be a second-round matchup, and four games later it’s close to being a classic. This was the third one decided at the end, the first that required overtime.

It’s been exhilarating to watch the two best teams in the league battle it out in such close games. In fact, all but one of these games could have gone the other way. The Spurs might well have been headed home now, up 3 games to 1, as easily as the Mavericks might have swept the series in four straight.

Yesterday I sought the wisdom of the crowd to determine the outcome of Game 4. Although the top 10 managers in my Spurs-centric “Drive to the Finals” league picked Mavericks over Spurs by a margin of 5-3, the top 10 managers overall picked Spurs over Mavericks by a margin of 8-1. Five picked Ginobili and three picked Parker.

The crowd knew that the Mavericks would win.

(For the record, I picked Duncan, but not because I didn’t think the Spurs would win, but rather out of fear that they wouldn’t, and I wouldn’t have a chance to play him later.)

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