Just to prove how wild the West has been this year, with one game left in the regular season, the Spurs could finish as high as second and as low as sixth. My concern is that they’ll finish third, which isn’t good news. More on that in a second.
Two weeks ago I asked our readers, “Who will the Spurs play in the first round of the playoffs?“
As of today, 71 readers voted:
- 17 picked Golden State, and they’ve been eliminated.
- 19 picked Dallas and 22 picked Denver, but the Spurs can’t finish first and its not likely they’ll finish second, so won’t face either of those teams.
In other words, a whopping 85% of our readers were wrong, including myself. (I was hoping against all hope that we would draw the Warriors.)
Whatever happens tonight and tomorrow, let’s all hope that the Spurs don’t face the Suns in the first round. Why? The Suns beat the Spurs three times during the regular season and swept them at home. And the Suns with Shaquille O’Neal match up better against the Spurs than they did with Shawn Marion.
If the Lakers hold on to beat the Kings tonight, as they most likely will, there are 18 possible outcomes for the Spurs. If the Spurs beat the Jazz tomorrow, there is a 67% chance they will face the Suns in the first round and a 33% chance they will face the Rockets. No matter what, they will have the homecourt advantage.
If the Spurs lose to the Jazz tomorrow, things get ugly. There is a 33% chance they’ll face the Rockets with homecourt, but a 67% chance they’ll face either the Jazz or the Suns without homecourt.
Those probabilities asign equal chance to the events on the other games.
I’d put extra weight on HOU over LAC and PHO over POR.
If those games turn that way, then
SAS (home adv) vs. PHO if the Spurs win or SAS vs. UTH (home adv.) if the Spurs loose are the outcomes.
Don’t like any of them, specially giving greater chance to a defeat on Wedneday, the 2nd in a week to a rivale, leading to a 7-game series vs. the same team without home adv.
Ouch!
raft,
you are absolutely right about probability. I guess my main point was that things were so close in the West that the very last game of the season determined whether the Spurs would or would not have homecourt, and finish anywhere from the 3rd to the 6th seed.
Pop said that seeds won’t matter much this year. I think homecourt will make all the difference in the world, though.
I’m thrilled that the Spurs thrashed the Jazz, but not that they will face the Suns in the first round. I predict a grueling 7-game series and I’m torn between dreading it and looking forward to it. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch, either way.
Go Spurs!