Series Preview: The Mavs? Who? Never Heard of Them.

Of course every Spurs fan remembers the 2006 Playoffs and our series against the Mavs. To me that is still the most heartbreaking loss as a Spurs fan. I watched 0.4; but that didn’t end the series, as dream-shattering as it was. But that Game 7 in 2006 crushed me. To take our first lead on that Ginobili three, followed by the foul, and then Duncan missing the shot for the win…

Stop. Let’s just not go there.

We owe a huge debt of gratitude to the 2007 Warriors, as their historic defeat of the Mavs in the first round paved our path to the Finals. Those Mavs teams were built to beat us. They had favorable counters for all of our advantages. Devin Harris gave Parker fits like no other guard really ever has. Diop and Dampier teamed up to make life very difficult for Duncan. Ginobili was usually our slight edge, but even Howard could slow him down. Pop could never outmaneuver Avery, almost in deference to his dear friend and point guard of his first championship team. And Dirk is the prototype of the player that gives our defense the most trouble, the sweet shooting big man with range. As good as Bowen always is guarding him, we’ve never really figured out how to stop Dirk.

But these aren’t your father’s Mavs, and that brief period when the Mavs and Spurs battled and maneuvered like the US and Russia during the cold-war are long over. The inevitable clash in 2007 never came, and the Mavs overhauled their team in 2008. And now here we sit, the 3 and the 6 seed, shadows of our former selves for various reasons. This eerily recalls last years playoffs, where we met our other former nemesis, the Suns, as the 6 seed, but in a completely altered state, grasping to the memory of their former selves, and hoping for one more chance at exorcising the demons of playoffs past. Perhaps, as we did last year with those Suns, we can beat the Mavs and complete their death knell.

The Match-Ups

Lucky for us, the Mavs have jettisoned the 2 players that made life the most difficult for us, Deven Harris and Dasagna Diop. Coincidentally, those match-ups happen to be where our two best players are.

The Mavs have no answer for Tony Parker. Parker is playing the best ball of his life, and Kidd, who was once a great defender, just can’t stay with him anymore. In fact, they probably won’t even have Kidd guarding Tony Parker. But nobody else is guarding Parker either. And with Diop gone, Dampier is the only big body they have to protect the rim…a big body that Parker can abuse and rack up fouls on. I expect Parker to be our leading scorer and be the barometer of our team in this series. As Parker goes, so do the Spurs. If Parker can play well, we can easily win this series. We all remember how we handled the Mavs without Ginobili and Duncan a few months ago, with Parker turning in a masterpiece. I’m sure the Mavs remember that, too.

The Mavs have very little to throw at Duncan anymore, either. Dampier is a big body and can defend Duncan well. But he is it. Who do the Mavs have coming off the bench? Brandon Bass? He’s very undersized and will not be able to body up Duncan on the block. I also expect big things from Duncan in this series.

On the other hand, we still haven’t figured out Dirk. Bonner will most likely start on him. That is a major advantage for the Mavs. We’ve always had our best success on Dirk with smaller, more physical defenders on him. Look for Bowen to see duty against him, and look for Udoka to see some time against him as well. Kurt Thomas probably won’t see as much time as our back up big, because Dirk is not a good match up for him, nor is Bass. And I fully expect to see Duncan on Dirk in crunch-time, as Pop loves to save Duncan for these key match-ups until late in the game.

The other match-up we need to figure out is Jason Terry. Easily my least favorite Mav, Terry is having a great year as their 6th man and, really, as their closer. He’s the one taking (and very often making) the big shots at the end of games. If we get in close games with them, expect the ball in his hands. How do we guard him? Who matches up with him off the bench? Do we use Bowen on him? Udoka seems a little too big to guard him. Perhaps Mason, Jr.? I don’t have the answer, but I’m pretty sure Pop has some ideas.

Keys to the Series

–Which Duncan are we getting? Tendonosis Duncan? Or 24-12 playoff Duncan? My gut feeling is playoff Duncan.

–Josh Howard. I didn’t mention him in the match-ups, but he may very well be the key to the series. He’s been battling injuries all year, and has been in and out of the line up. He can be a great player; he can also seem disinterested and fall out of the game relatively quickly. At his best, he’s a first quarter player. He always seems to torch the Spurs for 10-12 points in the first quarter. In fact, the Mavs always seem to jump out to early leads on us. It is important that we can stay in contact in the first quarter so we’re not playing from behind all game.

–The benches. They have the best bench player in this series in Terry, but we can easily have the better bench. What we can get from Gooden will be huge. If he can give us 10-15 points and 6-10 rebounds a game, that will be huge. But will Pop trust him in the playoffs? Are we going to see the reverse-dunking Udoka who plays stifling D? Will we see some vintage Bowen performances? Will Thomas be our enforcer? Can we please not get beat by Barea, for crying out loud?

–3 point shooting. Will we shoot it well? Or like crap?

–Finley and Mason, Jr. If one or both of these players can have a big game and be our 3rd offensive option, we’ll be in good shape. We need our outside shots to fall, and these two tend to be our best and highest-volume shooters. I expect Finley to have a big series, as he still feels the need to exact revenge on his former team.

–Defense. What it’s always about. Our championship runs have always been predicated on great defense. We have the system, we have the players. Will we execute?

Final Thoughts

We never got our chance to avenge 2006. This is the only team besides the Lakers to knock a Tim Duncan-led Spurs team out of the playoffs. If you don’t think the players know that and want that revenge, you’re crazy. I love this first round match-up for us. I think it will be tough, but I think it’s exactly the right series for us.

Remember 2006; remember the Alamo.