I'll See Your Parker and Raise You LeBron

That was a weird game. Everything just felt a little off-kilter for most of the 48. Pop played 11 players in the first quarter, including extended run for Mahinmi and Hairston. The pace was off the charts for the first half, as both teams pushed the ball like they were playing under D’Antoni circa Phoenix 2005. Both teams seemed to make little runs and grab control of the game, only to lose it the next moment. And both teams went ice cold at the same time in the 4th quarter, leading to something like 12 straight empty possessions.

Just a weird game.

In the end, we wasted a brilliant Manu performance. There’s really nothing to say about it. If you watched the game, then you understand. If you didn’t, then you missed a classic. He filled up the stat sheet, was in complete control of our offense, and even made some huge defensive plays (that were mostly wasted–I’m looking at you Richard Jefferson, traveling under the hoop).

George Hill was also impressive. I never realized how fast he is with the ball. That may seem like a weird thing to say, but there were a couple of fast break plays where he just kicked it into another gear and flew by everybody. It even elicited a “whoa” from the Cavs color commentator. His future is certainly bright.

Unfortunately, too many subpar performances weighed down the excellent ones. McDyess and Mason, Jr. were ice cold; Jefferson looked as lost as ever has; and Blair was a non-factor. Duncan and Bonner both had solid games. But in the end we relied too heavily on Manu, and once their defense keyed in on him, nobody stepped up. Manu tried, bless his heart; but when all 5 guys on defense are playing to stop you, you really need some help.

Let’s give it to Pop, though: if you ever need a play to get a wide-open three pointer when you’re down by 3 (or more) with under 15 seconds to go, he’s your man. It amazes me how we always get wide open 3 point shots when everybody in the building knows that we need a 3-pointer and only a 3-pointer. If only Mason, Jr. could have hit one shot tonight.

Looking Forward:

The loss tonight marks are 61st game of the season, leaving us 21 games remaining. As far as math goes, that’s about as close to 3/4 of the season as you can get. Instead of assessing the team thus far, let’s look at our remaining schedule and try to predict how the team will finish.

Here is our remaining schedule.

Our next 4 games are against the Knicks, the T-Wolves, the Clippers, and the Heat. Those are all winnable games. Ideally, we’ll go 4-0. Realistically, we’ll lose a stupid one, going 3-1.

After that, we have Orlando, Golden State, Atlanta, and Oklahoma City. Only Golden State is at home. That is a difficult stretch of games. Ideally, we can go 3-1, getting the Golden State game and 2 of the other 3. We’ve had good luck against both Atlanta and Oklahoma City this season. Orlando will be the real test. Realistically, 2-2, or even 1-3.

The two after that are the Lakers and the Cavs, both at home. Murderer’s row, but at least we’re at the AT&T Center. To take both of those games would be a feat of greatness that I don’t think this team has. Ideally, we can split; realistically, there’s a good chance we lose both.

We finish out the Month of March at Boston, at New Jersey, and then home for Houston. With Boston struggling, there’s a chance we could win both of those road games. But Houston has owned us the last 2 games, so I’m not optimistic for that one. Ideally, 2-1; realistically, 1-2.

April brings more pain, as we start the Month with Orlando at home and the Lakers in LA. Again, being able to split would be a dream, but there’s a good chance we could lose both.

After that, we have Sacramento, Phoenix, Memphis, and Denver. I think 3-1 is a real possibility here, though 2-2 might be more realistic.

Our season ends home against Minnesota, then at Dallas on the last night of the season. Ideally, 2-0. Realistically, 1-1.

Adding all that up, in an ideal world, we finish the last stretch of games 16-5. In a more practical world (perhaps some would say cynical), we go 9-12. Splitting the difference, we’re right about 13-8.

Ideal world puts us at 52-30; practical world puts us at 45-37; and split difference world puts us at 49-33.

Selfishly, I want to break 50 wins. I know it doesn’t mean anything really, but the streak of 50-win seasons in the Duncan era means something to me. It speaks to the continued excellence of the franchise, and it is something to be proud of. We’re in real jeopardy this season of not reaching it. We have to play markedly better over the last quarter of the season than we did over the first 3.

But despite Parker’s injury, there are definite signs that we’re improving and can make it to 50. Ginobili seems to be back with a vengeance. Hill is stepping up, getting better each game, and is becoming a reliable scorer for us. Duncan is Duncan. The defense is tightening up and getting more active.

We have to go 14-7 over the remainder to get to 50. Looking at the schedule, we have 7 games that we have no excuse not to win; 5 games that are probably toss ups; and 9 games that, based on this seasons results, we should probably lose. So give us the 7 gimmes, 3 or 4 of the toss-ups, and that only leaves us with 3 or 4 of the difficult ones to win.

Can we do it?

If we can’t, we’re certainly not a high-caliber playoff team and we probably don’t deserve 50. The Spurs have built their reputation over the last decade on closing strong and riding into the playoffs just as the team is peaking. The pressure is on, and the team’s identity and character will be forged in the last 21 games.

The race to 50 is on.