Is Tony Parker the key to the Spurs’ season?
The San Antonio Spurs just had the best offseason in franchise history, and arguably one of the best NBA offseasons ever. They landed a bona fide superstar in his prime; re-signed their own budding superstar to a reasonable deal; convinced their two veteran stalwarts to return for less than market value; convinced their valuable wing player who perfectly complements the team to also sign a below market deal; and, to top it all off, signed a tough-as-nails veteran who will fit into the culture seamlessly for (essentially) free.
All of this upheaval in a franchise known for stability, and yet the biggest question of all resides in the known: Tony Parker.
More accurately: what can we expect from the wee Frenchman in this upcoming season? And can the Spurs survive a steep decline in Parker’s play?
Tony has appeared almost unchanged for a decade, so it’s easy to forget that he’s now 33 and has been in the league for an astounding 14 seasons. Playing for the Spurs, tack on another season and a half of playoff games to that tally. He’s at the point in his career where most PGs start to decline, often precipitously.
Last season was the most frustrating of his career. He was never able to find good health or rhythm, and his numbers suffered for it. He averaged 14.4 PPG, his lowest since 03-04. His assists dropped to 4.9/game, the second lowest of his career (only his rookie season was lower). Even his rebounding was down, a full rebound below his career average. (A rebounding PG is a fast-breaking PG, and Parker was not the one-man fast break we have come to expect last season.)
The deeper numbers don’t bode well, either. As Kevin Pelton recently tweeted, the Spurs net rating was +16 with Kawhi on the floor and Tony off; that number plummeted to -10.5 with Kawhi off the floor and Tony on. This tells us that Kawhi is really good, but it also strongly implies the complementary point: Tony was really detrimental to the team last year.
The poor season culminated in the disappointing loss to the Clippers. Not only did he have a bad series, he was more often than not a liability. The series was decided on a razor-thin margin; given even an ‘average’ Tony Parker, and the Spurs most likely win that series.
It’s easy to write off last year due to injury and nagging health. But what if it was just the most noticeable step in a steady decline?
In 2012-13, Parker was masterful. He was a legitimate MVP Candidate and ran the Spurs’ offense with a maestro’s touch. His play, along with Duncan’s late-career renaissance, helped propel the Spurs to the Finals. He was great, and one can argue that his hamstring injury late in that series might have cost the Spurs the trophy.
In 2013-14, San Antonio returned to the Finals, but it wasn’t a trip fueled by the excellence of Parker. In fact, Tony slipped a bit, but it was easy not to notice because every other spot on the roster was better, particularly Kawhi, Manu, and Tiago. Parker was good, but he was not great.
Which brings us to last season. When put in context of the previous two seasons, it’s easy to see it as a continued step in the wrong direction.
What is most troubling, though, is Tony’s play in the recent Eurobasket. He shot a mere 35% from the field, and France flamed out in the SemiFinals of a tournament they were hosting in which the they were expected to win. By all accounts, he also looked a step slow and just off from his usual game. No injuries, just a bad few weeks of basketball when he should have been well-prepared.
Tony’s role in the upcoming season is much discussed in basketball circles. It’s easy to see why: what good is an upgraded roster in the escalating arms race of the West if the engine of the offense is stalled out? All of the LaMarcus Aldridges and Kawhi Leonards in the world won’t matter if everything breaks down in front of them.
The answer is simple, right? Tony is the lynchpin of the season. Parker returns to form, the Spurs will be great, and all will be well with the world; or, Parker continues to decline and the season borders on disaster (by the Spurs’ admittedly lofty standards). Whatever the case, Parker is the keystone.
Wrong. I think there’s a better way to look at it: it’s time to ease Parker into the next phase of his career.
What the Spurs have done for Manu and Duncan, they now need to more aggressively start doing with Parker. Not only should Pop pull back on minutes and games played, but Parker’s role in the offense should be minimized. The offense can no longer live and die on Tony’s ability to penetrate and break down defenses.
Getting Aldridge obviously is a big part of this. While it’s important for LaMarcus to find his role in the Spurs’ offense, it’s equally important for the Spurs to find the right role for a 20-point scorer that can get his shot whenever he wants from anywhere. It’s also important for the Spurs to find a bigger role for Kawhi in the offense. Shifting the focus and direction away from Tony only seems natural.
Will Parker be amenable to moving into the “Manu” role of his career? He has the reputation of being the most prideful and ego-driven of the Big 3, but I think a lot of that is undeserved. He has repeatedly sacrificed to stay in San Antonio, just as Manu and Tim before him. While his play is selfish on the surface, it was also Pop’s design to use his gifts to benefit everybody else.
Parker has never shown himself to be anything other than a team player. The real problem, then, is if he can accept that he is not the same player, and he allow himself to take a lesser role.
The real genius of Duncan’s longevity is not that he has remained great for 18 years; it’s that he’s found different ways to be great throughout every phase of his career, and has been able to accept the inevitably of time and decline.
Tony has always shown a willingness to improve and grow his game. He reworked his shot, and was able to develop a really consistent midrange jumper off the dribble. The one bright spot of last season was his progressing 3-point shot. If there’s one thing that can keep him viable on this team and an important player in the league, it’s developing the 3-pointer. Maybe he can’t dart to the lane and break down defenses like he used to; but if he can successfully negotiate the other side of that relationship, and be there to bury the 3 when Kawhi or LaMarcus breaks down the defense, his role to the team–while lessened–will be no less important.
Just different.
If the Spurs have shown anything, it’s the willingness to change and be different in the pursuit of success and basketball perfection.
Tony, you’re up.
