Season 50, Game 40
San Antonio 105, Phoenix 108
31-9, 2nd in the West

January has been a weird month for the Spurs.

So far, they are a middling 4-3 in the first 15 days of the new year. Those 3 losses in 15 days account for one-third of their entire losses for the season. However, they’ve lost those 3 games by a combined 7 points, and had a chance to win each game in the waning moments.

On the other hand, their 4 wins have come by a combined 113 points (about 28 points per game). They’ve been completely demolishing teams.

Which is the real team?

Smarty pants advanced stats would tell us that margin of victory (MOV) is often a better indicator of future success than actual record. So posting a +106 in 7 games for an average MOV of +15.1 would seem to indicate we’re just fine. When the team is on, they’re nigh unbeatable.

And losing in the manner they’re losing – while utterly frustrating and dispiriting to the fan – shows that even in the losses, these games are essentially coin flips. Coin flip games often come down to a few lucky breaks, a few miscues, energy, and focus.

That’s what stands out the most in these losses: the lack of attention to detail, focus, preparation, and respect. For example, in January in the 3 losses, they are averaging 21.3 assists and 14.3 turnovers per game, or about 1.5:1 assist:turnover ratio. That’s not very good. In the 4 wins? 31.8 assists to 10.5 turnovers, or about 3:1. That’s good. (Tony Parker on the season is at 3.4:1, so the team as a whole is close to its starting PG.)

Turnovers and assists are about as good an indicator we have in the box score for energy, focus, and preparation. Let’s look at a more subjective example:

In Saturday’s loss to the Suns in Mexico City, the Suns started the game out 11-4 in the first 3 minutes. Pop called a timeout, did a wholesale line-up change, and the Spurs quickly got back into it. Starting the second half, the Spurs were up 7. In the first minute of play, the Suns scored 5 quick points to cut the deficit to 2. Again, Pop called a timeout (didn’t make line-up changes this time), and coming back into play, the Spurs got back into it.

What’s the point, you ask? In about 4 minutes of play, the Suns had a 12-point advantage in a game they won by 3 points. So during the other 44 minutes, the Spurs lead the game by 9 points.

Basketball is a game of runs, so it’s easy to pull out any one stretch of scoring and highlight it as ‘the reason’ that game swung. I only point out these two stretches because they happened at the beginning of each half, which points to a lack of preparation and discipline and focus. It’s a 48 minute game; 4 minutes at the start of each half can indeed cost you the game.

The game in general was a bit sloppy in both directions. The Spurs looked very out of sorts, especially early. They were not only turning the ball over, they were doing it in spectacular (and sometimes comical) fashion, often throwing ‘passes’ to nobody in particular. They got it together to make the game competitive, but their were just too many miscues at too many critical junctures to ever seize control of the game or get back into it once control was lost.

As I said before the game, this had trap game written all over it. They flew into Mexico City on Wednesday for a Thursday game. Mexico City is at 7,382 feet elevation. Phoenix had been there the whole week and already played a game there. Since this was a focal point of the NBA, there were more demands on the players’ time than normal. This was an easy game to lose, and they lost it. Credit Phoenix: they played hard and never stopped coming. Their youth and athleticism has given us trouble in two previous games, and it finally caught up to us.

I’m not worried about this one loss. I’m not even worried about the 4-3 record in January. The wins show me a lot more about the fiber of this team than the losses do. It’s January, and this is where the NBA season becomes a grind. Silly losses will happen.

My concern is giving away too many of these easy games. This is a soft part of the schedule, and the Spurs would do well to bank as many wins as they can to secure the 2-seed. Houston isn’t going away, and the Clippers will start to make a move again soon.

While the losses don’t indicate how well the Spurs will be playing in April and May, they might affect where they’ll be playing. And against whom. As we’ve seen in the past, that can be as important as how the team is playing. The Spurs have a great opportunity to get the 2-seed and make a run to the Conference Finals. Once there, anything is possible. I’d hate to see a lack of focus and preparation in January derail the team’s fortunes in April, May, and beyond.

The Spurs return home to face the Timberwolves on Tuesday. If the rest of January is any indication, they should win big. (Knock on wood.)

Go Spurs Go.

Featured photo credit: ESPN