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The Warriors Are The Champs Until Further Notice

Season 49, Game 45
San Antonio 90, Golden State 120
38-7, 2nd in the West

There’s the Golden State Warriors… and then there’s the rest of the NBA. There’s Steph Curry… and then there’s the rest of the league.

The Warriors emphatically answered the ‘Who is the best team in the NBA?’ question on Monday night, leaving very little doubt that they are the measuring stick by which all other teams must gauge themselves. They also left very little doubt that they are the strong favorites to repeat as NBA Champions, and any other result should be deemed an upset.

Yes, we should not overreact to one loss. But we do need to react. The Spurs haven’t looked that overmatched and out of sorts in years, and there is reason to worry that the Warriors just may be a riddle that the Spurs will ultimately have no answer to.

‘The Game of the Season’ ended up being a dud. And when the final margin is 30 points, there isn’t a lot of micro-observations to be had. But we can look at some macro points to see what might be possible for the Spurs in future games facing the Warriors.

• Parker needs to be better. A lot better. He doesn’t have to outplay Steph, or even match Steph. But he needs to be more positive than negative for the Spurs, and he does need to be the driving force of the offense. He played perhaps his worst game of the season, getting completely worked over on both ends of the floor.

• Aldridge needs to be better. A lot better. He also looked completely overmatched and frightened of the moment. In the post-game, he mentioned he thought he was pressing a bit much. He needs to figure out how to be aggressive while still locked in and flowing in the offensive system. David West was the only big who had a good game. I’m happy that West is a match-up that seems favorable for the Spurs, but Aldridge needs to be a problem for the Warriors, not the Spurs.

• Two days after this article showed how impressive the Spurs’ transition defense is, San Antonio seemed intent to expand the sample size exponentially by turning the ball over an unfathomable 26 times, leading to 32 points for Golden State. There aren’t many ways to beat the Warriors, but you have to control the ball, control tempo, and limit transition points. And you have to get shots up to keep pace. The Spurs did none of these things. They ended the first quarter with more turnovers than made baskets, which is quite an accomplishment.

• In general, the transition defense was terrible, as the Spurs found themselves in unfavorable cross-matches way too often. I know Pop didn’t want to show his hand as to what match-ups he prefers, but it doesn’t matter when Golden State is beating the team down the floor on almost every possession.

• Kawhi played fairly well, though had a few uncharacteristic turnovers. Part of what makes him so special offensively is how well he protects the ball with such high usage. Still, he had the best offensive game, and it’s clear that he can win his match-up on the offensive end against most any player from Golden State. His offense can also help to slow the pace of the game down.

• The biggest advantage the Spurs have is their bench, which you can reasonably argue is better than the Warrior’s bench. It’s imperative that the Spurs win the battle of the benches. It’s particularly important that the Spurs are able to outscore the Warriors when Curry is on the bench. If the Warriors have shown any weakness this season, it’s the propensity to lose focus and let leads slip when Curry sits.

• Curry is a huge offensive problem. His shooting distorts defenses until they completely collapse. If you double team him, though, you basically concede the possession, leaving the Warriors to play 4-on-3 with most of the half court available. I think you have to find a way to build a defense while single-teaming Curry. I also think you need to build a defense with the PG guarding Curry. If you think Kawhi is the answer to guard Curry, the Warriors will kill wherever you try to hide Parker or Mills. If Curry scores 30+, you might just have to live with that.

• Because Draymond Green is the real problem. Most of the non-‘Curry is the best shooter ever’ offense that the Warriors generate is from Draymond’s ability to facilitate the offense as a sort of super-charged athletic Boris Diaw. He also creates insane match-ups by running the pick and roll with Curry, leaving a big stranded guarding Curry. I think putting Kawhi on Green is the best long-term answer in both limiting the non-Curry offense and giving the Spurs the best chance on that pick and roll.

• Danny Green’s defense is critical against Golden State. He needs to find his offense to keep him on the floor.

• The Warriors rise to the occasion; the Spurs are the occasion. San Antonio brings out the best in teams (they helped facilitate about the only bright moment in the Clippers’ entire history), and the Warriors get up for big games better than any team I can remember. So this blowout was always an inevitability. The Spurs just don’t ‘get up’ the same way, which is a blessing and a curse.

• There were a few bright-ish spots. Simmons had a solid game on both ends, showing he is not afraid of the match-up and has the athleticism to keep up. As mentioned, West seems well-suited to the match-up. Diaw can work in the post. When they weren’t turning it over, the offense looked decent. And when they were allowed to set the defense (not very often), they had plenty of solid possessions.

In general, Pop seemed more interested in testing hypotheses than winning the game (not that that was a viability, regardless). He threw a bunch of different line-up combinations out there, played most every player on the bench, and did a lot of different things defensively for just a few possessions. He seemed generally nonplussed by the blowout. I think he was using this game to get a sense of the two teams and see if there were any weaknesses to exploit, and edges to be had.

The most encouraging thought? Golden State might have just played their best game of the season, perhaps the best game any team will play this season. They are firing on all cylinders, and it’s hard to see how the team might improve. (And they might be so good already that they don’t need to improve.) The Spurs are still a work in progress, only half a season into a new style and a lot of new pieces. So they can get better.

30 points better? That’s the question.

The Spurs return home to face the Rockets on Wednesday night. Beating our in-state rivals would help to wash out the bad taste from this game.

Go Spurs Go.

A Game Of Runs

Kawhi-Harden

Photo credit: Darren Abate, FRE / Associated Press

If you’ve watched much Spurs basketball this season, there are a couple things you might have noticed:

  1. They start slow.
  2. They do NOT mess around in the third quarter.

Number one is probably fresh in your mind if you watched last weekend’s Spurs vs. Mavericks game, in which San Antonio was losing 16-14 to Dallas at the end of the first quarter. Yuck.

Number two is probably also fresh in your mind, because in that same game they showed absolutely no interest in letting up against the Mavericks once the Spurs got going. After halftime, San Antonio came out swinging and turned their 10-point lead into a 29-point win.

Up until now, I’ve only been able to anecdotally comment on the Spurs’ third quarter dominance, but I wanted to back it up with some data. So I looked up every box score from this season, entered San Antonio’s quarter by quarter point differential into an Excel worksheet, and made it do some math. And guess what I learned?¹

The Spurs are doing a great job in the third quarter.

But guess what else I learned?

They’re doing even better in the second quarter!

2015-16 Spurs Point Differential by Quarter
1st Quarter 132
2nd Quarter 229
3rd Quarter 176
4th Quarter 101

What this tells us is that the third quarter domination we’re seeing is actually being set up by truly stellar second quarter play. To borrow a phrase from fan favorite Jonathon Simmons, San Antonio really “changes the juice” after the first quarter comes to a close.

Think about it like this: if the Spurs have a tendency to be sluggish in the first quarter, it really masks how well they play in the second. The Mavericks game is a perfect example. San Antonio was down by 2 after the first quarter, then up by 10 at halftime, meaning they outscored Dallas by 12 in the quarter. In the third quarter, the Spurs again outscored Dallas by 12, pushing the lead to 22 points.

The third quarter only looks more impressive because the total lead has grown considerably by that point. Let’s take a look at another example of the Spurs third quarter dominance being set up by a strong second quarter.

On Dec. 3 at Memphis, the Spurs were down 1 point after the first quarter, but by halftime they held a 9-point lead. After the third quarter, San Antonio’s lead was up to 17, which looks much more impressive than 9, even though they actually scored fewer points than they did in the second quarter.

The reason these third quarters seem so soul-crushing to the opposition is because:

  1. They are.
  2. More often than not, the Spurs are building on a sizeable lead by the time the third quarter rolls around. San Antonio is averaging an 8-point lead at halftime!

Hats off to the Spurs for not stepping off the gas in the second half and making the third quarter so devastating for the opposition. The NBA is often a game of runs, and this season the Spurs have been really good at making sure the opposition go on theirs during garbage time.

If there’s a place San Antonio will need to step it up in order to keep up with the only team ahead of them in the NBA standings, it’s the first quarter. Golden State is outscoring their opponents by 5.8 points in the first quarter, and is 32-1 in games where they lead after the opening quarter.

As long as the Spurs keep themselves within striking range going into halftime, I think you have to like their odds to pull off the victory. We’ll find out how it actually plays out tonight.

1 I later learned that I didn’t need to use Excel because there’s a cool website that already did the work for me. D’oh!

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