2015 Western Conference Playoffs First Round
San Antonio 111, Los Angeles Clippers 107 (OT)
Series tied 1-1
When so much hinges on so many minute things, an interesting energy permeates a playoff series.
Both teams had ample opportunity to seize a win last night or to completely fumble the game away; neither happened. Instead, two mostly equal teams played, and one just kind of outlast the other one. If the game had been a minute longer, surely the Clippers would have evened things out. If the game had been just a minute shorter, the Spurs would have let a sure win slip away. It’s mostly a 50/50 proposition.
The Spurs, however, come out of it 51/49, and a narrative is born that doesn’t necessarily reflect that. The Spurs got the split they wanted, and they head home “in control” of the series with the Clippers left to wonder if they have what it takes. But that split flips just a little bit, and the Clippers are in complete control of this series and the eulogies are being written for the Spurs (as they have for the last 8 years). Such dramatic swings stemming from such tiny differences.
What a game. When I say “what a game”, I am in no way implying that it was a particularly beautiful or well-played game. It was ugly and often weighed down. There were stretches when one or both teams looked could barely do anything resembling basketball. But it was a game filled with passion, with consequences, and with urgency. It was playoff basketball.
Once again, as it always was, and as it shall forever be, Duncan was the team’s savior. There is nothing left to write about this man. And he is a man, no longer qualified with the word ‘young’. He will be 39 in a few short days. I am 36. The head coach of the Celtics is 38. Tim Duncan isn’t beating Father Time; Tim Duncan is Father Time.
Duncan had his shot going, and he was able to keep the offense alive through many dead stretches. He was able to school Defensive Player of the Year Candidate (but not winner, congratulations Kawhi!!) DeAndre Jordan in the post. Jordan most likely has never known an NBA without Duncan in it, and now he is guarding him in a meaningful playoff game.
More than just the scoring, though, Duncan anchored the defense and centered the team. On a court full of athletes and freaks of nature, no player was able to out-hustle him or out-play him. Parker went down, Manu fouled out, and Kawhi is still figuring out his expanded role; but there is always Duncan to lean on, sturdy and reliable.
The team needed it. I don’t know what’s wrong with Tony, but he is not himself. He has no lift on his shot, no zip in those legs. He was more aggressive in Game 2, and was able to penetrate better, but he couldn’t get a shot to fall, and the ball was sticking in his hands as he over-dribbled and pressed way too much. There were complete possessions of just Tony dribbling, trying to find seams and get around Paul guarding him (not the defender you want to test when you’re not 100%). Tony was a complete liability on both offense and defense, and it’s almost a miracle the team won with how much he played.
This presents a conundrum: no Tony Parker at all is better than that Tony Parker. But how do we know which Tony we have? Can Pop actually pull him or sit him out completely?
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
I do know that on defense, he can not guard Chris Paul, and the more he does, the more the team’s chances for winning the game diminish. And on offense, if he can’t shoot, can’t penetrate, and won’t pass, he might as well just hand the ball to Paul and let him fast break the other direction.
That’s the bad news. The good news? We seem to have a pretty reliable solution for both problems. Defensively, in Game 2 we saw more of Danny Green guarding Chris Paul, and it was very effective. For the first few minutes of the second half (before Pop inexplicably yanked him) Green defended Paul, and the Clippers’ offense just totally bogged down and stagnated. Not coincidentally, the Spurs were able to surge and extend their lead. After Pop pulled Green, Parker returned to guarding Paul and the Clippers’ offense magically got good again.
I know that Pop has a short leash with Green, but he needs to let him stay on the floor. Even when his shot isn’t falling, and even when he makes the occasional defensive rotation mistake, Danny is critical to what the team wants to do on both ends. He is our best option defending Chris Paul (and by extension, the Clippers’ offense in total). He is a great shot blocker and rebounder for a guard, both skills necessary against this team. On offense, he is clearly intimidated by Jordan at the rim, but just the threat of him shooting a wide-open 3 is enough to scramble and stretch the Clippers’ defense. He made a few last night, and they were backbreakers. I imagine he’ll make even more in San Antonio, and is due for a game where he really goes off.
Over the final 6:41 of the game, the Spurs scored a mere 6 points, and most of those were hard to come by. The wheels seemed to be coming off the bus, and the offense was dead. In the OT period, the team scored a whopping 17 points in 5 minutes. The only difference in players? Danny Green subbed in for Marco. Correlation isn’t causation, but it’s hard to ignore how much better the team looked. (It’s also a smart play to bring in at least one fresh player in OT, as most coaches just ten to ride with their closers, completely exhausting them. It’s why the end of many OT games can be so sloppy.)
Offensively, we saw our answer to the TP issue in the form of Patty Mills. It may just be a one game aberration, but if Playoff Patty is back, this team has a higher level to potentially get to. Last night he was excellent, stretching the defense, being pesky, playing with energy, and making huge baskets. And huge FTs. He hit 6 of the highest-pressure FTs you’ll ever see. Do you trust anybody else on the team to make those?
Yes, the offense runs much better when he isn’t the only PG out there, especially playing off of Manu. But right now he is bringing more to the table (and taking less off) than Parker. He also seems to have won the back-up spot back from Joseph. Cory has really one shot to win playing time in this series, and that’s with tremendous defense. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really shown it yet, and his offensive game just isn’t clicking right now, making him more of a liability.
If Parker can’t go for Game 3, I predict that Cory will start, but Patty will get a ton of minutes. Cory is a nice placeholder for Parker, and his best chance for success is with the starters, where his penetration and lack of outside shooting fits better (as it tends to replicate Parker’s game). But I have a hunch Parker will give it a go, taking us back to the original conundrum. This is why the game is played.
To me, the biggest story of the game was the shooting. In contrast to Game 1, the Spurs’ shooting looked so much better. But it still was pretty subpar. The team missed a lot of wide-open shots at the rim. More, though, they missed so many wide-open 3s. The team shot 8 for 25, and I imagine at least 23 of those 25 were wide open looks borne directly out of the movement of the offense. They just couldn’t make them.
If we look on the bright side, this shows that the offense is clicking and is finding holes and weaknesses in the Clippers’ defense. While the Spurs are a pretty average shooting team on the road, they are an elite shooting team at home. In Games 3 and 4, there is a very good chance that the Spurs’ shooting numbers spike way up. If all of those wide open shots are there at home, the team is not going to miss 17 of them. This could be a real problem for the Clippers, especially if they imagine their defense is still slowing down the Spurs.
Finally, we should probably talk about the intentional fouling. I don’t hate it because it makes the game ugly; it’s sound strategy and makes for great theater, if not exciting basketball. I understand the theory behind it. But Pop almost blew the game last night stubbornly employing the strategy.
In 5 trips, the Clippers scored 6 points, which is pretty good for the Spurs. Against a high-octane offense, you can live with that, especially if it eliminates plays from Paul and Griffin. But there are other factors to look at: the Clippers’ offensive rebound percentage on Jordan’s FT misses is nearly 20%, meaning they get almost 1 in 5 back. Rebounds off of missed FTs are dangerous, because the defense is never set and forced to scramble. The Clippers got a few of them last night, and the Spurs were actually pretty lucky that they didn’t capitalize on them more.
The other critical issue of the strategy is that the fouling team must score to make it worthwhile! And the Spurs just could not score at all in the final 6 minutes last night, a large chunk of that during the hacking period. Part of this could be bad luck (Parker’s injury, Manu fouling out), poor execution, or just missing good looks. But the fouling does offer a few advantages to the opposing defense: the players get to rest and catch their breath for a minute while DeAndre shoots, and they get to set their defense. Plus, they know the Spurs will be playing in the half-court, so there is no fast break or secondary break, where the Spurs work so well. The Clippers have a pretty stout half-court defense, and watching the Spurs’ offense during this stretch was painful. Especially considering right before they started hacking they were rolling and had built up a 10-point lead.
I don’t criticize Pop often, for good reason. And he’s earned a ton of benefit. But with his fouling strategy, his unwillingness to play Green, his going back to Parker when Mills was clearly feeling it (at the beginning of the 4th quarter), his putting Parker on Paul on defense, and a few other things, he almost blew the game.
But as Pop would be the first to tell you: luckily, he had Tim Duncan. He makes everything easier for everybody on the Spurs, and erases multitudes of sins.
Game 3 is Friday night in San Antonio. The Spurs need to win both home games to keep the pressure on the Clippers.
Go Spurs Go.
