2015 Western Conference Playoffs First Round
San Antonio 96, Los Angeles Clippers 102
Series tied 3-3
The San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers have played 6 consecutive games, and we’re still left with more questions than answers.
In a series that always wants to zag when it seems as if it should zig, I guess this is not all surprising. We’ve had three straight road wins, and four (out of six!) overall. The last time the Clippers won in Los Angeles was almost 2 weeks ago. The Clippers are the only team to beat the Spurs in regulation in San Antonio since early January… and they’ve done it three times now.
(Larry W. Smith / EPA)
The idea of momentum is laughable at this point. If anything, one might successfully argue that the team that lost the previous game has the upper hand moving into the next one as they will be the team more prepared, more focused, and more hungry. But game to game, quarter to quarter, possession to possession, no team has really been able to secure an upper hand.
Most of the ends of these games is coming down to execution and will. Or, in most cases, execution vs. will. Will the Spurs’ execution and calm under pressure prevail? Or will the Clippers will and athleticism edge out?
If you read the subtext of this question, yes, I am questioning the will of the Spurs. This is the issue with coming off of a championship and repeating and what makes it so hard. It takes intense focus and attention to detail and determination to win a playoff game, let alone a championship. A player must devote entirely to the pursuit. In 2014, the Spurs were as locked in as we’ve ever seen the team, which makes sense given the way the 2013 season ended. Without that impetus, this playoff run has been less persuasive. The team is playing well in stretches, but there hasn’t been an overwhelming sense of urgency, that single-minded pursuit that is the hallmark of last year’s team. Even the smallest hint of complacency will derail a title chase.
This is not to question their effort. But there are so many little mistakes, both mental and physical; all of these tiny moments when there isn’t total devotion to the goal. One instance may not mean much, but added up, they are brought to account. Not getting back in transition (absolutely destroying the Spurs, and this is a hallmark of a Popovich defense); missing calls from the bench to foul; missing calls from the bench to not foul, and still fouling; blown assignments; sloppy and careless turnovers. These aren’t the Spurs we’re used to. There are humans behind the machine.
This isn’t solely on the players, either. Pop has not had his finest series. Pop is famous for noting that adjustments in playoffs are a bit overrated, and it’s more about execution and players doing their job well or not. To a point, this is true. However, this is a lot easier to say when you have a team like last year that is a buzzsaw tearing through teams. In a series like this, where the teams are essentially equal, the outcome of a game may very well hinge on an adjustment that creates an extra possession in the 2nd quarter.
The obvious coaching question starts with the hacking strategy. I didn’t watch the game live last night, and based on reading twitter, you would have thought that Popovich pulled down his pants, urinated on the court, then pulled all of his best players to let Ayres and Anderson run the team. It was actually a bit more subtle than that. I thought the hacking last night wasn’t all bad: the real problems started immediately after, when Duncan had to be pulled by picking up two silly fouls: one on an offensive rebound and one when he hacked Jordan when Pop was telling him not to.
Still, there’s a stubbornness to the vigor with which Pop sticks to his strategy. The hacking completely kills any flow to the game, which damages both team’s offenses. When the Clips are out and running, this is a sound strategy. But when it destroys the Spurs’ potent offense, it begs many questions. It felt like the Spurs had a handle on the Clippers defensively in the 2nd quarter when the strategy began last night.
The hacking is a bit of a red herring, though. I think the real issues Pop has had in this series stem from adjustments, rotations, and minutes. But there’s a real dilemma at work here: several players are seriously struggling in this series, but you have to give then a chance each game to prove themselves. But when 3 out of 5 starters are negatives (and the Clippers starters are so good), it puts you in a hole at the start of each half that is difficult to always be climbing out of.
In the specific cases of Parker and Ginobili, I understand the calls for reducing their minutes and getting some other players some playing time. Mills is playing great, Joseph might provide some defensive spark off the bench, Marco has been our most consistent shot maker this series. But think about this: the Spurs won their first championship with those two in 2003. That is over 12 years of steady play and relying on these two players under all circumstances, and being rewarded more often than not. It’s not an easy nor simple choice to simply discard that relationship after 6 games of middling play. The cliché is “dance with who brung you”, and this has been a very long trip to this dance.
So Pop must give Parker time each game, but also make sure Mills gets his time, and hope that Manu has it, but also find playing time for Marco, and give Green a shot (and still trust in his defense even if his offense is off). This isn’t easy.
In the case of Tiago, I think it’s time to change the starting line-up. Tiago is clearly struggling mentally and physically. It’s too great a burden to begin every half outmatched. As we’ve seen many times, Pop is willing to make the Boris for Tiago starting line-up switch. It’s time. Tiago can still play really solid minutes with the bench (where he often thrives), away from Jordan, running pick and roll with Manu.
(The starting line-up is the real bugaboo here. When the Spurs made their strong second half run, it was because the starting line-up returned intact and started laying waste to the NBA. They were by a wide margin the best unit in the league. Splitter got hurt and Parker got banged up, and it hasn’t been the same since. Even the last couple of weeks of the regular season, despite mostly winning, the team wasn’t as good. If the Spurs lose this series, this is probably why. With the injuries and lack of cohesion on the Spurs, the Clippers just might be the better team.)
Pop has also been slow to make certain adjustments. He put Green or Leonard on Paul, but perhaps a game or two too late. He gave Duncan a shot at guarding Griffin, but seems unwilling to do it too much. As noted, he might be sticking with the starting line-up for too long. He’s not even giving Joseph a look, when he’s earned something. (Cory can play some 2-guard, as well.)
There are other adjustments that can be made. Or at least attempted. The Clippers are killing the Spurs on high pick and rolls with Paul and both bigs. (With Paul dribbling near mid-court, both Griffin and Jordan step out above the 3-point line with a screen on either side, and Paul can choose which way to go.) Once Paul gets by the screen, he is isolated on a big man with nearly 25 feet of wide open space. Needless to say, this isn’t good. The Spurs can try to force the picks to come lower, try to trap Paul and make him give it up to one of the bigs, or something other than just letting them run it over and over.
In general, there are other ways to try and stop Paul. You can trap him just over midcourt and force the ball out of his hand. Trap him with Barnes’ man. Forcing the ball to Matt Barnes isn’t a bad thing for the Spurs. It’s better than a Blake drive, a Jordan alley-oop, a Redick 3, or anything from Paul.
Paul and Griffin have both been great. Jordan has been what we’ve expected on both ends of the court. It’s tough, but you can live with certain things from them. But we can’t let them do whatever they want in the half court, and get out in transition, and get huge baskets from Redick and Rivers. Some of this is execution and effort, but some of it is scheming as well. It’s the last time we’ll play the Clippers all season: no tricks should be left up the sleeves.
The initial question also contained the Clippers’ will, not just the Spurs’. This is where the series gets really interesting. By this point, the Clippers have answered all questions about their fight and their fortitude. They will not fold; they’ve had every opportunity to and haven’t yet succumbed. It won’t happen now. They are scrapping, they are playing incredibly hard, and they are determined.
Often, though, that will has worked against them. Blake has been bad in many 4th quarters, often owing to exhaustion. He also tries to do too much, sometimes leading to costly TOs. Jordan had the costly offensive goaltending, which was more a crime of will than execution. Desire alone does not win a game, and being able to control that passion and balance it with precision and execution is how playoff games are won.
And let’s face it, the Clippers are still complainers and mild head cases. I actually think the reason they have played better on the road this series is that there is less pressure for the team in San Antonio. There is also more of a bunker mentality, and they can just play basketball. In Los Angeles, the crowd gets involved, and for whatever reason, there is this giant communal feeling of being slighted, mistreated, and ignored. That nervous energy of the crowd feeds into the team, and they just seem less focused with a more negative attitude.
So perhaps the Spurs are better off playing in Los Angeles for Game 7. If the game remains close, the Spurs might be more mentally fortified to close it out, while the Clippers might tighten up under the pressure of the moment and the magnitude of the game for the franchise. Despite what we all want, the Spurs really are playing with house money. The Clippers are still looking for a seat at the table.
So what happens in Game 7? There are still more questions than answers.
The Clippers could very easily blow out the Spurs if the Spurs decide it’s not worth fighting for.
I don’t see the Spurs running away with the game in the same manner, unless the Clippers completely seize up from the moment.
Most likely, the game will be close at the end. And here is where the initial question comes into play: who executes? who wants it more? which players step up in big moments? which team gets the lucky bounce? which coach makes the right gut decision?
Which teams best players will play their best? The Spurs really need Kawhi to have a big game.
Will Big Baby be able to play? This is almost too ridiculous to ask, but he has been a difference maker. He is literally the only big that Doc is playing off the bench, and he is playing well. If he can’t play, that means that either Jordan and Griffin will have to play all 48 minutes, or Hawes and/or Turkoglu will have to play meaningful minutes. Both outcomes are positives for the Spurs.
Ultimately, this will come down to the team’s mantra: pounding the rock. This whole series has been a rock-pounding series, just hammering away, waiting for the Clippers to break. It hasn’t happened yet. There’s only one game left, and either the rock breaks, or the hammer does. Either way, there remains a mere 48 minutes of basketball between these two teams.
It is almost too much to take. Almost.
Game 7 is Saturday night.
Go Spurs Go.
