This may be the most talented roster the Spurs have ever fielded… and they still might not be a Top-4 team in the Western Conference.
It’s been a long and highly productive offseason. Enough foreplay; it’s time to start the regular season.
For the first time in a long while, the Spurs begin the new season with as much uncertainty as promise. Certainly this will be a very good and competitive team, as usual. But there has been a significant amount of personnel shake-up, leading to serious systematic questions that only time can give answers to.
The team added LaMarcus Aldridge, a multiple All-Star still in his prime. Paired with Kawhi Leonard, this will mark the first time in over a decade that the bedrock of this team will not be the Big 3. That’s a good thing as we start looking to a time beyond the Big 3, but how much winning basketball still exists within those 3 players may prove critical to the success of this season.
This may very well be the most talented roster the Spurs have ever fielded… and they still might not be a Top-4 team in the frighteningly loaded Western Conference. With Golden State, Houston, Oklahoma City, and the Los Angeles Clippers all loading up as well, the regular season will be a gauntlet, featuring top-level basketball every night. The regular season has real meaning, as where a team finishes in the conference majorly impacts their playoff potential (as we learned all too well last season).
Let’s take a look at some of the key issues as the 2015-16 season kicks off for our San Antonio Spurs.
LMA
The Spurs have never acquired such a big name in free agency. It was a funny feeling, “winning” free agency. Getting LaMarcus was a master stroke of long-term planning by the front office, and a no-brainer decision. Now it’s time to prove it on the court.
Finding room for Aldridge’s talent is not difficult. He is an offensive powerhouse, the kind of player that offenses can be built around. He can score in bunches and completely tilt defenses towards him, freeing up the rest of the offense to get easier looks.
There’s plenty of hand-wringing about fitting him into the Spurs’ system; Aldridge is the type of player that you fit the system around. It’ll be a learning process both ways. To paraphrase Manu: it’s as much about the Spurs learning Aldridge as it is Aldridge learning the Spurs.
LaMarcus is too good and the Spurs too smart not to figure it out. But it might take some time. Practice patience. If Friday’s final preseason game is any indication, though, the new offense has the potential to be a juggernaut. LaMarcus looked as comfortable as he’s been all preseason, and the shots started falling.
Once those first few jumpers go in, Aldridge is playing with more confidence, and the opposing defense has to make serious decisions: continue to let him go off, or focus on him and open up the rest of the offense. Fortunately for the Spurs, Aldridge has also shown a willingness and a deftness at passing in the preseason, so expect the same ball movement you’ve grown accustomed to.
Aldridge was an All-Star last year; he’s still an All-Star. This is not the place to put your worry. Watching the team evolve with and around LaMarcus will be the most important aspect of the early season.
Kawhi
And yet, the development of Kawhi might be the most important “addition” to this team. After winning the Finals MVP in 2014, Kawhi was poised to have a huge breakout season. Unfortunately, early and freakish injuries (Conjunctivitis? A hand injury the doctor had never seen before? Really?) stalled his season. By the All-Star break, he finally got it going. With a healthy Kawhi, the Spurs were easily one of the 2 or 3 best teams over the final third of last season, and had a real shot at repeating.
We know how that story played out. Kawhi, in particular, struggled over the last 3 or 4 games in that Clippers series. It was a frustrating end to a frustrating season.
This year should be that breakout season we were anticipating last year. I expect his defense to remain at Defensive Player of the Year levels, and I expect his offense to take a huge leap. He’s been playing with confidence and power in the preseason, easily the best Spurs player. In the past, he has appeared tentative or deferential on offense. No more. He is dominating opposing defenses, imposing his will on the offense. He is even showing aptitude at running the offense and making smart decisions as both a playmaker and a scorer.
There really is no limit to what Kawhi is capable of. This is the year we should start to see the actualization of that.
Father Time
The Big 3 is still on this roster, even if their bigness has been mitigated. Even with lessened roles, their impact remains paramount.
We’ve discussed Tony Parker. Preseason has only raised more questions. With this loaded roster, Parker doesn’t need to be the engine of the offense like he has been. He only has to be the part-time conductor. If he takes on too much and can’t do it at the level he’s used to, the Spurs could be in real trouble. If he finds a new role on the team, he could have an even greater impact.
I think the best question here is: can Parker accept his new limitations and find his role on the team? We’ve seen Manu and Tim before him do it. Now it’s Tony’s turn.
Speaking of, Tim still looks great. I’m not worried about the oldest player on the team.
Best of all, Manu looks really good in the preseason. It’s probably the best he’s looked in 3-4 years. He’s moving great, shooting great, and still seeing the floor with savant-like vision. Again, if Pop can find the right minutes and role for Manu, he still has plenty to contribute.
The Rest of the Roster
The Spurs have always been a team reliant on depth and system knowledge. No other team uses their role players as well as the Spurs, and no other team relies upon its role players quite like the Spurs.
The genius of Pop is he never asks for more from his players than what they are capable of giving. He puts them in positions to do what they’re best at, and to succeed in doing so. The addition of Aldridge sacrificed a bit of depth. In doing so, the Spurs have less room for error by the rest of the roster, and a few more unproven quantities on the roster. How will these two variables play out?
Patty Mills tops the list of important role players, particularly with Parker’s decline. By all indications, Mills is back to 2014 form after a disappointing 2015 recovering from a should injury. His shooting and spark add a new dimension to the bench.
Boris Diaw needs to be engaged and aggressive. And his 3-point shot needs to come back.
David West is a luxury for this team, and I can’t wait to see how he contributes. Any other player and I would question how he will accept his new (lessened) role, and how he will fit in with the team culture. But West chose this, and I think he’ll be a natural on that second unit.
Kyle Anderson needs to prove he is a reliable NBA player on both ends of the court. Every aspect of his offensive game has improved from last season, and he should find time on that second unit whipping the ball around the court. His defense can’t be a liability, though.
Boban Marjonovic could earn a real spot in the rotation. His size is a real problem for other teams. He’s also shown in the preseason that he is so much more than his 7’3″ frame. He has real touch around the rim, a decent midrange jumper for a player his size, and good court vision for a big man. He could be a great fit with that second unit for a stint or two a game, and I think Boris and Manu will have a field day getting the ball to him at the rim.
There is also some intrigue at the fringe of the roster. Ray McCallum may prove important as 3rd-string PG. There seems to be a 10-15 game stretch every season when the 3rd PG is called upon to play real minutes. Jonathon Simmons showed NBA-level athleticism in Summer League, so much so that the Spurs signed him to a 2-year contract before training camp. Now he needs to show NBA-level professionalism and skill. And Pop chose Rasual Butler for the 15th spot on the roster, valuing his veteran presence over younger, more athletic options. Butler is a noted 3-point shooter, but did show he had a bit more to his game in the preseason.
The NBA season is long, and every player on the roster will prove important at some point. Unlike the last few seasons, there are more questions than answers as we move down the bench.
The Schedule
On July 4th, when LMA chose the Spurs, it was trendy to pencil San Antonio in as the title favorites. 3 months later, it’s trendy to predict that the Spurs will struggle and might not be as good as everybody thinks.
That’s just the nature of ‘hot take’ era in sports. You have to go against the trend… which then becomes the trend. With zero games of real basketball being played, the Spurs have transformed from monolithic basketball machine to a sputtering and aging roster with real concerns. Go figure.
Yes, there are real questions to figure out. It will take real professional NBA games to figure things out, learn what we have, learn what we can do, and what we can’t do.
Look at the schedule. The team opens up against OKC on Wednesday, and then it’s a long line of “average” teams. Mostly teams the Spurs should beat; many they should beat handily.
There’s a double-edged sword here. The early-season schedule provides plenty of space for the team to learn, experiment, build chemistry, and find its footing, before facing serious competition.
On the other hand, that means the serious competition is back-loaded, and the Spurs can ill afford to lose games they should be winning. (We saw how a handful of dumb losses really sunk their playoff hopes last season.) So in some ways, there’s more pressure to win these games early, because the team needs to bank as many ‘easy’ wins as possible. At the end of the season, it could be as little as 2 games that separate the 5 teams at the top of the West, and a loss to the Knicks in November shouldn’t be the difference-maker for the Spurs.
The team needs to use the early season to find itself, but it needs to find itself in wins, not losses. As the race at the top of the West escalates, each game takes on more meaning. There’s no room for messing around.
Luckily, the Spurs have a surplus of talent on this roster that on its own should carry them to wins most nights.
The West
In an era of unprecedented dominance, this might be the most top-loaded Western Conference yet. Five teams have legitimate title aspirations and a real shot at 56+ wins in the regular season. Golden State returns an intact roster that won 67 games last year and breezed to the title. Houston made it to the Conference Finals and added Ty Lawson to the roster. The Clippers actually have a professional bench this season. And the Thunder look to be whole for the first time in a couple of seasons. Remember them?
By season’s end, seeding will be critical. It will be paramount to finish in the Top-3. I don’t think a team will be able to make it out of this West from the 4 or 5 spot. And 1 and 2 will have a real edge on the competition, with easier first round opponents and home court in the second round.
This goes back to the last point: the Spurs can NOT give away games this season. Where you finish does, in fact, matter.
And it all begins Wednesday night in Oklahoma City. Thank God Spurs’ basketball is back in our lives.
Go Spurs Go.
