Given the animosity between the fan bases (or is that just me?) and the continued success of both franchises over the years, it’s pretty miraculous the Rockets and the Spurs haven’t met in the playoffs since 1995. This is the only Western Conference team Duncan never faced (or beat) in the Playoffs. That’s crazy.
My first thought: we owe it to Duncan to get this spiritual victory for him.
My second thought: man, I want to beat this team. Badly. Nothing makes me happier than beating the Rockets. Throw D’Antoni into the mix, and that’s a powerful desire to win.
My third thought: this could be a very good series.
In the regular season, the Spurs took the series 3-1, but finished those four games with a mere +8 point margin. Every game was close and came down to the final possessions. We of course remember the Kawhi 3 and block that sealed one victory; we might also remember that crazy comeback from 14 down with about 6 minutes left earlier in the season.
My memory of each of the games was that the Rockets always seemed to have a lead late and seemed to be in control, but the Spurs were able to execute and perform better in the clutch. Under the postseason spotlight, this could become more magnified and could hopefully benefit the Spurs in tight games.
The first worry when playing the Rockets is always James Harden. How the Spurs choose to defend him will set the tone for the series. Can you guard him one-on-one with a combination of Green and Leonard? When he runs the pick and roll, can you defend that 2-on-2, so that the other three defenders stay home on the perimeter shooters, thus minimizing the 3-point damage this team wants to inflict? Can we avoid fouling him? Can we make him work on defense?
Beyond that, the next concern is the 3-point shot. It’s no secret Houston wants to jack them up early and often. It can be the great equalizer, allowing a less talented team to hang in a game when the shot is on. Will Houston have enough hot shooting games to take the series? When they are not shooting well (they shot poorly in their first round match-up against OKC), do they have enough to stay with the Spurs? Can the Spurs maintain their defensive integrity while still limiting and contesting the long ball?
After the tough first-round series with Memphis, it may seem like the Spurs offense is a bit stalled out. But moving from Memphis to Houston must feel like being released from basketball prison. Houston will score a lot; but they will let San Antonio score a lot, too. However, an offensive battle favors Houston; a defensive one favors the Spurs. Where on the continuum will these games (and the series) fall. The average score for the regular season series was 105-103. If the scores stay around there and lower, I think the Spurs should be heavily favored. If they drift into the 110-115 range, the Spurs might be in trouble.
Turning to the Spurs, there are still plenty of questions 6 games into the postseason. Will Kawhi continue his historic playoff run? By extension, can he out-MVP James Harden in a showdown of the potential MVP runner-ups? Whichever MVP candidate can contribute more to winning will likely lead his team to the series victory.
But Kawhi still needs help. Parker was great in the first round. Can we get 3-4 more great games from him? Will Beverley cause him defensive problems? He’s a great defensive guard, but so is Conley, so it might not be that much different for him.
After that, who else is ready to step up? Manu? Mills? Green? Anybody want to start hitting shots consistently? With Houston usually trending small, will San Antonio stay big and really force a style-vs-style fight? Or will they match and play some with Kawhi at the 4?
Which bigs will play? We know Aldridge will (and he needs to have a great series), but after that, who will get the call? Will Lee continue to start? How many minutes will Gasol play, and can he be effective? Both Dedmon and Bertans seem like good match-ups against Houston, but how much will Pop trust them?
Finally, which team is playing better right now. Presumably, Houston played a better first-round opponent and beat them more handily. They didn’t necessarily look good doing it, though, and required OKC to self-combust a bit to cover up their own myriad of mistakes in the end games.
San Antonio, on the other hand, was in a tougher series, but had to beat Memphis to win the games: the Grizzlies definitely weren’t giving anything away. While OKC was the better regular season team, I think Memphis was a better playoff team, and the Spurs had to play better, more playoff-style basketball in the first round. This might make them more prepared for this second-round match-up, when the intensity will crank up even more.
Of course, the question of health is always important. Both teams have had a nice rest before this series, so I expect both teams fully healthy. However, Harden did seem a bit banged up (ankle, hand) near the end of that first round series, so that will be something to monitor.
With any luck, this will be a great and competitive series…that the Spurs win.
Game 1 is Monday night in San Antonio.
Go Spurs Go.
